About POP-III: the Monte Carlo
Fossil Creek Software has designed a new companion
program to POP-II, called POP-III. It can be used either as a stand-alone
modeling program, or as a post-processor to POP-II.
POP-III represents another approach to population
modeling based on stochastic (Monte Carlo) sampling. The program offers
a choice of uniform, normal, and cumulative distributions for the various
survival and fecundity rates, each defined with usersupplied parameters.
As with POP-II, the user enters, edits, and reviews the input data and
runs simulations to determine the consequences. If used as a post-processor
to POP-II, POP-III will analyze the results of the previous simulation
and decide on the best probability distribution for the population's variables.
Here are some of the considerations to keep in
mind when choosing the best modeling software for your needs:
Please refer to the documentation, POP-III_Documentation.PDF(200
KB; requires Adobe Acrobat Reader, available free of charge from Adobe),
you wish more details.
Whereas POP-II is best suited for animal populations
with relatively stable mortality patterns from year to year, POP-III may
be used for most any population.
Though both are cast for hunted populations, either
may be used on non-hunted populations.
POP-III may also be used for endangered species as
it assesses the probability of extinction.
POP-III has somewhat less potential for applied population
modeling and much more potential for learning the principles of population
dynamics. It implicitly covers the principles of probability distributions,
sampling theory, risk analysis, and exceedence values, i.e., the probability
that an event of a given magnitude (a bad winter for example) is equaled
POP-II's strength is understanding the past and present
population parameters. POP-III's strength is understanding possible futures.